Aggregate #005: Meta/Claude AI bans, the death of authenticity, and the $160bn rise of sports betting
This week's aggregate is brought to you by Ballpoint's finest: Ryan and Mark
Last week I was in California.
In SF, AI billboards were everywhere. As well as making it seem like the entire economy there was AI-focused, it also acted as a good reminder of forgotten launches.
Even brands we’ve already signed up for, we forget about quickly. If your product use isn’t daily or weekly at worst, then you risk being forgotten. If your product frequency is monthly or less, then you need constant ways to remain front of mind.
I’ve written about LTV debt in the past, the notion that brands invest so heavily in acquisition that they end up with an unbalance on the other side of the fence. I’ve seen firsthand brands who have managed to nail an acquisition engine – scale spend from £50k/month to £2m, but their LTV profiles remain static.
With the AI billboards this is about something even more dangerous: users churning before they’ve even experienced value.
With potential launch velocity now at 100x what it was before, I feel that activation marketing and advertising will become even more prominent. An acquired user will mean less and less, and with some of the AI CACs I’ve seen that feels pretty dangerous.
I hope you have a great weekend, please share feedback and vibes.
Josh
Key stat
Signals
Key signals for builders, growers, and operators.
Meta changes link-based attribution [Meta Ads] – Until now a “linkclick” on Meta also meant a like or a comment or many other platform-level engagements. That’s changing with a link meaning an outbound click. For anyone who does click-only attribution, expect a bit of a shift. Some studies have shown that likes and comments and saves are actually more impactful for revenue than clicks, so be aware.
Meta is reportedly banning accounts for using Claude MCP [Meta/AI] - many reports emerged this week on X that accounts are being banned for connecting to Meta via the various MCP servers out there. People inside MCP providers are denying the allegations, but it has certainly spooked many people. A Meta account ban is hard to come back from without account support, so we recommend caution.
Authenticity and provenance are out, function and lifestyle are in [consumer] – this was my main takeaway when comparing UK and US retail over the last few weeks. As ever US Retail remains miles ahead of UK, though we are catching up.
The Stack
A shortlist of stuff I recommend you read and watch this weekend.
📝 Nobody gets promoted for simplicity. Terrible Software
📝 Everybody loses. Vulture (£)
📝 The science of why AI still can’t write like you. Every
📝 How TV learnt to sell itself. Works in Progress
📝 Are we in a smut renaissance? New York Times (£)
🎧 The business of Formula 1. Acquired
📺 Mad Men Revisited: 10 Year Anniversary with Jon Hamm & John Slattery
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